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Archive for the ‘Pumpkin Watch 2009’ Category

Back around Halloween, I thought of putting up a list of relief pitchers whom I thought had a pretty good chance of turning into “pumpkins” in 2009–a more extreme version of regression to the mean; these were guys who had Cinderella seasons in 2008 but didn’t have much of a previous MLB track record to tell if their ’08 performances were fluky or not.

The guys I had tagged for pumpkins based on 2007 were Peter Moylan and Hideki Okajima and my suspicions about the latter were quite founded. My suspicions about the former were also on the mark, as he was either going to fall to earth or get hurt due to overuse. Moylan’s not having a very good 2009, either, but that’s likely due to coming back too soon after injury.

Here’s my list of pumpkins for 2009:
Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays;
Craig Breslow, Minnesota Twins;
Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers.

(I dismissed Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster from the Pumpkin Report because they are essentially veteran players, and I also excluded Seth McClung because his performance was less Cinderella and more like, I don’t know, Hime-chan no Ribon–it only lasted for an hour and it wasn’t spectacular.)

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